At the time of writing this there are many people still waiting for preorder ASIC's to be delivered from ButterFly Labs and they seem very fond of deleting posts made by upset customers and are constantly extending estimated delivery dates for shipping. I thought I would collect the relevant posts made on the BFL forum by BFL employees only to highlight where actual predictions / estimations / promises were made on shipping dates / clearing the backlog etc.

I was urged to read this with the release of BFL now offering two new options for customers to buy into (the 300GH mining card and the virtual mining buy 1GH - 10K GH) so I am expecting another round of advertising from BFL and well hopefully this will be some informative post for someone to make an INFORMED decision about sending more money to this company.

If you have found this useful please send donations to BTC: 1kF4qy9mZwbHPWLVqsjQ9kB27JdrqYK4u

Well for much time Preorders for Jallys, Singles and MiniRigs were on offer in June 23rd 2012… and the expected delivery date then told to customers was October 2012 shipping for all products. I went to Bitcoin2012 in London.. met with Josh and his reply about delivery dates was: “Well we hope to have everything shipped to all customers by christmas 2012”

That would have been nice I thought at the time but was interested to see just how true this would be and what he was basing this figure on.

I got disappointed when in November it turned out the ASIC chip was completely redesigned and essentially a load of work / progress went out the window and board design went back to the drawing boards…

  • Still looking for the actual thread**

The Timeline

2nd October 2012 We have worked hard but we see no possibility of beginning to ship the SC's in October. Hang on to your trade-in units and keep mining…

6th November 2012 The FPGA's have all shipped.

The ASIC's (Jalapeno, Little Single, Single SC, MiniRig SC) have NOT shipped–none of them have shipped; none have been completed. You can take a short vacation while you wait.

When we start to ship we will notify you–in our blogs, on The Front Page, on the website, on our Forum, on BitCoinTalk

27th November 2012

Clarification was needed to inform customers that no shipping was going to happen in november.. interesting looking back.. we all must have kinda needed telling this was reality. “That's right. No ASIC's for November”

After much hounding for one place for regular updates from angry / concerned / confused customers FINALLY in January Josh started this thread Where we all thought we would see regular updates and good progress on the actual shipping of devices etc…

notice on

22nd January 2013

“Week of February 10th Packaged chips sent to assembly house Assembled PCB is set for final testing and MCU programming Notify users to start sending their FPGA units or BTC for trade in participants Bulk assembled PCBs arrive in KC, we start dropping PCBs into waiting units Boxing/labeling for shipment We implement the 1/3 shipping plan en mass 1/3 of our assembled units will go to new orders in FIFO 1/3 of our assembled units will go to upgrade orders 1/3 will be randomly selected from both groups

We descend upon the Post Office like horde of angry locust. DHL, UPS and FedEx send trucks.”

So this implies at first glance that they were going to be shipping all production lines week of the 10th FEB…

6th Feb 2013

Shipping had already been delayed to very “Fuzzy” dates So it's looking like the week of the 17th for shipping, probably a bit later in the week unless the bumping house really pulls it together, we might be able to ship as early at the 18th, but that is pretty optimistic, more likely is around the 22nd

BFL_Jody can be quoted on the

19th Feb 2013 As our ASIC chips make their way through the final packaging before they are joined to the boards and assembled into BitForce miners, we are having shipping cartons delivered and assembly people ready to complete the final step. If all goes well we will ship the first units this month. Those are the orders made last June. If you order now, because of the backlog of orders, you may not get your order until May or June of this year. We are not good enough prophets to tell you exactly what day your order will ship. If you ordered between June of last year and February of this year, your order will most likely be shipped before June of this year.

Interesting to note that on the

27th Feb 2013

we saw FIRST Pictures of a BFL ASIC chip freshly grown and ready to be cut and bumped This is where KNC MINER is at todat at the time of this posting:

The weeks roll by and there is little sign of any product being shipped yet…

16th March 2013

Explained the problems So the good news is the boards work, the chips work, the bumping works, the substrate works. We just need to nail down a bit more with the firmware and we should be able to conduct a full test and start shipping.

Amusingly Josh had to clarify on

29th March 2013

I want to clarify the above post, as there is some potential confusion. We are not shipping yet. We plan on shipping possibly by the end of next week, but I will update on a shipping schedule as soon as I have more definitive information with regards to that.

Updates from then on the thread get more and more infrequent and there is NEVER any confirmation of updates to the shipping schedule from Josh. The thread then got abandoned pretty much till the community hounded BFL to give an update on the thread in June and eventually Josh did.. but by that point BFL_Jody had mostly taken over updates….

One of her first posts regarding ASIC lines delivery was on

20th April 2013

Think this was the First working ASIC device produced by BFL and sent to developers I saw 2 Jalapenos leave the plant today. The first ones go to developers/reviewers.

19th May 2013

here I know I haven't posted much lately, because nothing shipped until now. A few went out Saturday and more will be ready to go Monday. All still from June 23 orders unless you were in the lucky 1/3 shipping plan. (And don't ask me about the 1/3 shipping plan–it's only for first month orders and thankfully will be over when those are shipped.) When we ship–I post within 24 hours of the shipment.

One of the more “amusing” posts was made in this thread started 01-04-2013, 06:45 PM Where with all the delays it was asked How we feeling for an April release?

and the reply to that was: BFL_Josh: I would probably have to commit seppeku if we were delayed until April.

From April (after price hike on all product lines and dropping of Hash Rate for device lines) there was a big influx of people to BTC and into the BFL Preorder list… Josh got some heavy abuse from angry customers and BFL_Jody seemed to take over the official shipping / delivery updates in the Blog section.. but certain questions are never answered or were only given in the Shoutbox on the main page.

Many thanks to Grnbrg for his reposts of any information from BFL employee on the shoutbox for the record of what was said:

3 Jun 13

3 Jul 13

“Josh, you were thinking all 2012 (non-MR) pre orders would be shipped by end of July, still feel that way?

“BFL_Josh: Yeah, I think we'll get it done.

3 Jul 13 BFL_Josh - I still expect us to be through the back orders by the end of August.

Suddenly the shipping for all orders to date slips a month

8 Jul 13

10 Jul 13 BFL_Josh - As far as I know, our new production manager is still on target for the end of September.

So not sure what you make of Josh's predictions … seems to me like he is simply passing on the party line from his boss and saying what he is told to say… but quite frankly… DON'T BELIEVE IT!!

Some replies I found worth now posting here: Josh: There is no “September promise. ” Where are you guys getting this from?

Yes, you're right, all the quotes have definitively proved my point. There is no “September promise” that people keep citing. There has never been a “September promise.” So far, not a single person has shown a quote from anyone at BFL promising all back orders would be shipped by the end of September. All dates given have been estimates, that's why they are called estimates and not “guarantees.”

Is this really that hard to understand? Do people really not understand what an estimate is?

As far as this quote goes:

It's due specifically to the fact that we are delivering and fulfilling our end of things. That's what's so ridiculous about all these arguments. Why do you think the difficulty is going up? Who else is shipping in quantity besides BFL? [B]We crossed the 10,000 units shipped[/B] mark sometime last week and our production is accelerating. Please, and I'm dead serious about this, tell me what you thought was going to happen after we shipped all of our products? Did you think difficulty would remain the same or go down?


BFL will choose their wording VERY carefully, as I am trying to here so this post can remain for all to see. Congratz on passing the 10,000 units shipped BTW! Watch out for “unaccountable” quotes on 3rd party websites where you may have heard about BFL and then come here straight here to place an order. *You can only go by what a BFL employee can be quoted as saying.

Published on June 5, 2013

They (BFL) have promised that every backlogged order will be shipped within the next 90 days

Another thing concerned me for a while as even I had not read the wording carefully enough in the “Lifetime Guarantee” on the ASIC devices Butterfly Labs has always been committed to our customers and protecting the value of their investment in BFL products. To that end, we are extending our warranty on our ASIC products to the lifetime of the unit. BFL will warranty the actual mining device (PCB/processor(s)) against failure for the reasonable lifetime of the unit.

With the advent of our increased manufacturing capacity and investment into our infrastructure, our goal is to provide an end to end, robust relationship with our customers. One they can rely on not only for the present, but into the future as well. When you buy a BFL product, we want you to feel comfortable and secure that we will not forget or abandon you when technology continues to evolve.

I was somewhat alarmed when “Lifetime” is 365 days, but reread the post Fuzzy: Does the lifetime warranty on 65nm parts expire once Monarch ships? Josh: No, it will be good for 1 year after your shipment date.

So I want this post to be constructive and informative… and by far the best constructive post of information I found when considering investing in hardware at this point in time, is from here so many thanks bodgybrothers [QUOTE=bodgybrothers;58458]Josh's comments are very annoying. But if you ignore Josh and his terrible public relations, you then start looking at the hash rate and come up with forward estimates on when to get back into bitcoin. Right now, you are chasing yourself with upgrades just to keep up.

Let me give a lesson on predictions.

First we look at the bitcoin hash rate and we turn the chart to logarithmic. This type of data is not useful in a linear form.

Then we see what happened with the explosion of GPU and FPGA after the BTC was worth something. the hashrate changes from linear increase to exponential increase from January 2010 to July 2011 (18 months). We see that after this, the linear progression is back until about january this year. At this point ASIC's start hitting the hash rate. Now we see an exponential hash rate and we can predict with little certainty that we are about 15% to 20% into this exponential rise. But we do know this exponential rise will continue to at least June 2014.

If we use the past as a predictor of what influence a change of technology has on the rise of the hash rate, we can predict that ASICs will keep the rise of the hash rate going till June next year. At which point we can very accurately predict the hash rate to be at 1,000,000,000 GH/s. we are at 1,000,000 GH/s now. Another factor of 1000 in the hash rate before we get back to a linear increase in hash power.

This prediction is highly accurate and is how we look at trends in markets to see where we are in the bull trend.

This leaves a Jally mining at 7Ghz (in june 2014) pulling in about 0.0000252 bitcoins a day or 0.000756 bitcoins for the entire month of June 2014. A Monach will make you 0.00216 in the month of June 2014.

Now based on that, make an informed decision if you want to keep buying bitcoin miners in this bull market.

Personally, I would wait till the exponential rise turns to linear rise. Then I would buy the very cheap miners and get the same % of the hash rate I had in the GPU days. In the mean time, just mine the equipment already bought and hope the BTC price goes up a few factors to cover the loss.

As a hedge I spent a small amount at BFL and some Avalon stuff. As the exponential rise became more visible in May 2013, I stopped investing in mining equipment and now wait till the linear progression comes back.

That is a risk assessment that I have completed and I hope it helps someone.

Maybe we can't blame Josh's hopelessness on our decisions to purchase mining equipment in this environment. However, Josh has a social responsibility to inform buyers of the risks and to also show a graph of the number of units sold and the number at which all future orders will not return their investment. In BFL's business they are holding back information on how many GH/s are in the order book before the new order is made. This is insider trading, as it gives BFL more profit at the expense of the investors loss, unless that investor is buying product to assist the bitcoin network and is not looking for profit. I think this needed to be made clear by BFL with a customer agreement before purchasing. This would be the socially responsible thing to do, as there are many new people jumping on board without really knowing what it is.[/QUOTE]

Also let me finish by saying Josh really liked this post in particular as it

[QUOTE=MSO;58455]I can only conclude that the estimates made by BFL customers were even worse than BFL's estimates. None of us has been waiting longer than 5 months – we could have cancelled our orders in April – we knew ASICMiner was going to ship first and that there were other manufacturers afoot yet we 'estimated' that our orders with BFL represented our best chance to get our hands on hardware. That estimate is proving to be correct; BFL is the largest volume shipper in the business. BFL’s impact upon the network difficulty is the estimate that blew up. While we didn’t know the size of BFL’s order book (and BFL would have been idiots to publish it) we all had a pretty idea. We knew BFL order numbers weren’t necessarily monotonic, but they gave us some pretty big numbers with a lot of multiple orders to boot. We should have known (and some did) that this was going to be a case of either ‘go big or go home’. I went home myself; oh I ordered a Jalapeno for $150 and bought a Radeon HD 7770 for another $110. I’ve mined with the 7770 on Slush’s pool for since March of this year and have earned 2 BTC and found 1 block (249102). I spent just under 0.80 BTC to upgrade my Jalapeno to 6.5GH/S and am still waiting for it to arrive. The only promise I’ve heard from BFL since March is that they were going to get us our hardware as soon as they can. Well, they have and are still doing just that. Henry Ford they’re not, but then I didn’t expect that they would be. Our estimates, based somewhat on BFL’s estimates, were way off. There was no way that any of us were ever going to make the money we thought we were going to make. The math just doesn’t work out. Unless we were prepared to buy up in the multiple TH/S range, we were going to be lucky to break even. Block 49102 is my contribution to the bitcoin world; yeah, I’d like to find more and maybe I will. It would be really nice if it didn’t cost me anything and making a little money would be a lot of fun to tell my grandkids, but that’s just me. BFL has been breaking their backs trying to learn how to mass produce a product on their own; FOXCON in China might have been a better plan, but the order quantity just wasn’t enough for that. So they’re doing it on their own; I just hope most of the folks at BFL can let the nasty comments posted here just slough off their backs. They're working very hard and getting better all the time. Thank you, BFL, for taking your best shot at this.[/QUOTE]

Many thanks for reading and go spread the information to others!!


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